With the 2024 harvest right around the corner, ADM Grain merchandiser Dan Bowman says the grain markets this year have been a widespread haze the past few months as they transition out of lower production and higher revenue years:
“Going back to 2019-2020 when we transitioned into higher prices, lower production years from a world perspective, lower carry outs, and just better economics for the ag industry, especially the production ag side of things altogether. Now we are transitioning out of that. Historically that period of better prices, better financial returns, probably lasted longer from a historical standpoint when you look back in time, but now we have probably phased out of the higher revenue years and looking into the tighter years here. Hopefully those cycles, and I think a lot of what you read and hear, maybe the cycles will not last as long when we turn down either, even out the good times and the bad times. History will tell us in a few years.”
Bowman reports the last transition out of higher grain prices into tighter years was in 2012.
