El Niño forecasts for this winter have farmers in Illinois expecting to see drier and milder conditions, which is not always the best news for farmers looking to replenish soil moisture. According to State Climatologist Trent Ford, the 40-inch soil moisture at the Monmouth mesonet station is at its driest point going back to 2004.
This is not just the case for Monmouth. According to the Midwest El Niño Impacts and Outlooks report, “much of the Midwest is entering winter with below-normal soil moisture, so drier conditions due to El Niño may slow drought recovery.”
However, while it is important to replenish soil moisture for the next growing season, Bayer Crop Science Technical Agronomist Lance Tarchionne says ‘you can’t beat timely rain’.
“When it started raining there in late June,” explained Tarchionne. “We really had pretty good rainfall amounts throughout July and August and that’s why the crop is as good as it is. So our crop is not this good because of storage soil moisture. Our crop is this good because we got timely rain when we needed it through the growing season.”
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, there is an 80 percent chance that El Niño conditions this winter will last through spring and a 75 to 85 percent chance it will be a strong event.
